Note: In the examples below I chose these stocks before I discovered AIM Re-Bal because I felt they would be good AIM candidates. And when I came up with the concept of AIM Re-Bal, I randomly picked these stocks to be in the following Portfolios. I did not put them together so they would render the best results. All examples are made up of 4 stocks. |
Example1: XMSR, BA, AEIS and RDC |
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Port 1 AIM Re-Bal as of 2-3-2003
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Port 1 reg AIM
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On the left is AIM Re-Bal. On the right is regular AIM.
As you can see the red line is as if you bought these four stocks (equal dollar amounts) and held them the whole time $10,000 now worth less than $5000. On the other hand the AIM RE-BAL starting at $10,000 is doing relativly well.
This is an actual example. I started this test in Aug 2000. That is to say I retrieved the data starting from that date. I didn't personally start the test at that time but the data goes back to then. I realy do own these stocks and I do have a portfolio made up of them. I am only 3 months into using it however. so I can't boast of the great return as above but I do have confidence in the future results.
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Example 2: ARTI, PALM, BWS and ZQK |
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Port 2 AIM Re-Bal 2-3-2003
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Port 2 reg AIM
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Disaster scenario.
Looking at this chart you might say "Not too good!" But, if you check on these stocks for this time period (Aug 2000 - Sept 2002) you will see that PALM went from $40 to $54 then down to a low of $0.69!
I did nothing special. I just plugged in the data month by month. Ths is not the best way to handle a situation like this but when backtesting you can't say "I wouldn't have done that." I just put the data in and took what ever it gave me. A stock like PALM can really gum up the works. And now it's actually below buy and hold on this dip! This can happen.
9/3/02 And PALM continues to drain the resources of this port! The regular AIM does better because it has shut off buying of PALM long ago (lack of cash) . However, if PALM recovers in the next few months AIM Re-BAL will benefit where reg AIM will not, other than the price increase.
BTW this port (AIM Re-BAL) is also out of cash so only the rebal portion is at work here. |
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Example 3: JAKK, BCGI, ASMI and CNXT |
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Port 3 AIM Re-Bal 2-3-2003
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Port 3 reg AIM
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Example 4: CMLS, JBHT, CD and TWTR |
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Port 4 AIM Re-Bal 2-3-2003
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Port 4 reg AIM
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That's it for the Examples. I may have more as time goes by.
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One could say this is not a true test because I did all those on the reg aim side as individual stocks and not all four mixed together. I should have to run tests on the ports using all stocks together n each port but for now this will have to suffice.
Also, in the above examples AIM Re-Bal used a $6666 stock and $3333 cash ratio.
All of the Reg AIM examples used a 50/50 stock to cash ratio. I also tested with the same ratio using a 66/33 ratio for AIM and the results for AIM were less impressive overall. Port 2 however did just as well as AIM Re-Bal but Ports 1, 3 and 4 did much worse. In many cases the 66/33 variety ran out of cash. So that is the real rub. Running out of cash in high volatility issues is a real problem.! |
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